Thanks for the thoughtful post.
I am currently reading Putin's People, by Catherine Belton. The book is a fascinating account of post Soviet Russian and Putin.
From the Western perspective Russia's invasion of Ukraine is one of the stupidest events in history. Almost as stupid as Stalin's pact with Nazi Germany and his refusal to believe that the Nazi's were going to invade Russia (despite multiple warnings).
Putin has destroyed two decades of progress in Russia. As long as Putin is in power and Russia occupies some or all of Ukraine, Russian will be a pariah state. The Western companies that have left will not return and there will be no investment from the West.
Russia will be embargoed. They will not be able to purchase farm machinery, computer technology or avation equipment and parts. Some of this they will be able to get from China, but not everything. Europe will move, as much as possible, to non-Russian energy sources. After they get new sources they will never allow Russia to blackmail them again. The only markets Russia will have for oil and gas will be in Asia.
Support for military and economic aid to Ukraine is one of the few issues that both Republicans and Democrats agree on. Mitch McConnell has visited Ukraine. The United States and the other NATO countries will continue to supply arms to Ukraine. The Russian military is already so crippled that it is no longer a conventional military threat to NATO.
The cold war is back. NATO will expand and many of the NATO countries will take defence much more seriously. Russia will be vastly outspent on arms compared to the US and Europe. Projects like the Strategic Defence Initiative ("Star Wars") will return. The US nuclear arsenal and defence will be upgraded. More US military assets will be stationed in Europe.
Russia will not be able to keep up, just as they could not in the Soviet era. Putin has resurrected the "Evil Empre" and the US military will have focus on Russian containment. The US loves having an enemy and Putin has provided an enemy.
All this for what? If Putin's Russia manages to conquer Ukraine they will conquer a country with destroyed cities and a population that hates them. Russia pumped billions of dollars into Chechnya. They don't have the money to rebuild Ukraine.
The deployed Russian military is not nearly large enough to occupy Ukraine and Russia may find that Ukrainian collaborators are small in number. NATO will support a Ukrainian insurgency that will make Afghanistan pale by comparision.
Perhaps the Russian people do have a unique ability to suffer and put up with dictators. Many Russians will not want a bleak future in a pariah state. Unless Russia resurrects the Iron Curtain and stops its citizens from leaving, anyone who can leave will.
I read an article that stated that until Russia comes to terms with what happened in the Soviet era there is no hope for a brighter future. There have been projects like Memory (a now banned Russian organization that documented the Soviet era). I think that this is true. As long as there is nostalgia for Stalin and the Soviet era there will be dictators like Putin.
