The Tesla stock price has been dropping daily. I look at the stock price as recreational schadenfreude. As we approach May when Tesla will have to disclose their quarterly profits I expect even bigger drops. Any normal company would have fired Musk but this will not happen with Tesla.

I have speculated that Musk knows that it is over for Tesla and would move on to a SpaceX IPO. But now I am not so sure.

The rocket launch business is not particularly profitable for anyone (SpaceX, Lockheed etc...) The real profit potential for SpaceX is not launch but StarLink. But StarLink may not be very profitable right now. And here again Musk is his own worst enemy.

Musk accused the Mexican telecom billionaire Carlos Slim of being connected to the Mexican drug cartels. Slim canceled a multi billion dollar contract with SpaceX/StarLink.

Musk may also be screwing Verizon on their FAA contract grabbing it for SpaceX.

Then there is the space nazi factor. Many people will be loath to buy services from SpaceX given Musks actions and behavior. Including his lies as noted in this post.

All this suggests that the future of SpaceX may not be as bright as it seemed in the past.

If SpaceX were to "go public" they would have to disclose all of SpaceX's gorey financial details and the picture might not be pretty. Especially as people start to understand that Musk is Phoney Stark and a risk factor for the company.